You out-play your opponents almost everywhere. Your edge is thinnest in the first 10 moves.
87% of your games are 3+0 blitz, and your rating went from 3423 to 3440 over the last 90 days. Over those games you made 0.46 big mistakes per 40 moves; your opponents made 0.83. So there is no glaring weakness here. This report ranks six leaks by how much more they cost you than they cost your opponents in the same games. Openings and endgames are where that margin is thinnest: about 1 rating point each.
The short answer
Analysed: Hikaru’s chess.com blitz games: 46,865 games · Stockfish 19 on the latest 2,000 (Mar 11 – Sep 24 2026). Report date: .
Verdict: Holding at the top, not climbing. Last 90d vs Mar–Jun: accuracy -0.04 (p = 0.82); big mistakes per game +0.04 (p = 0.41); score -0.01 (p = 0.57). None of it is beyond noise. Wins from lost positions: 4% vs 5%, so the results aren’t luck either.
Biggest leaks:
- Openings that start you in a hole: White: +0.4 by move 10 · Black: −0.3 · ≈19 rating points, 1 fewer than your opponents
- Endgames: the last point: 367 endgame mistakes · 57% in rook+minor endings · ≈8 rating points, 1 fewer than your opponents
- Not taking what’s offered: 302 missed punishments · 23 free pieces · 5 mates · ≈22 rating points, 7 fewer than your opponents
Free Goat Card for Hikaru · How to review your own games for free · Time pressure in chess, measured
Your game at a glance
- Openings2,970▼ 20
- Tactics3,430▲ 10
- Strategy3,150▼ 30
- Endgames3,200▲ 20
- Brilliant moves232in 2,000 games
Each number is the rating of a player who plays that part of the game the way you do: your opponents’ average rating (2,980), adjusted by how much win-% you lose per move there compared with them, in the same games. Arrows: the change against your opponents compared with Mar–Jun; grey means it is within the noise. A brilliant move is the engine’s top choice that gives up at least two points of material.
Improving, or lucky?
| Metric | Last 30d | Last 90d | Mar–Jun | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Results | ||||
| Games | 335 | 990 | 1,010 | |
| Rating, start → end | 3396 → 3440 | 3423 → 3440 | 3292 → 3420 | flat |
| Score | 89.3% | 89.0% | 89.8% | flat (p = 0.57) |
| Skill: what the engine sees | ||||
| Your accuracy | 92.5 | 92.2 | 92.2 | flat (p = 0.82) |
| Opponents’ accuracy | 89.2 | 88.9 | 88.7 | flat |
| Big mistakes per 40 moves | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.45 | flat (p = 0.41) |
| Opponent blunders you punish | 83% | 81% | 80% | flat |
| More accurate than opponent | 86% | 86% | 87% | flat |
| Eval at move 10 as White | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.4 | flat |
| Eval at move 10 as Black | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.3 | flat |
| Conversion & luck | ||||
| Score after reaching +5 | 98.8% | 98.6% | 99.0% | flat |
| Score after being −5 or worse | 36.9% | 35.3% | 40.4% | saving fewer |
| Losses that were +5 at some point | 4% | 8% | 5% | flat |
| Wins that came from a lost position | 4% | 4% | 5% | flat |
| Wins on the clock while losing on the board | 1% | 2% | 1% | flat |
| Losses on time | 8% | 13% | 8% | worse |
Rating, rolling 50-game average
Rolling 50-game average: 3316 → 3439. Most of the climb came in the spring. Since then it has held.Accuracy, rolling 50-game average
The blue line never dips below the orange one: you 93.0, opponents 89.9. The gap is steady, not widening.Your clock: wins vs losses
Time left on your clock after your move, in the games you won and the games you lost.
- Move 20
In your wins you reach move 20 with 2:20; in your losses with 2:10. Only 10 seconds apart, so your losses are rarely decided by the clock this early. Medians over your 3+0 games (1,502 wins, 116 losses).
- Move 30
In your wins you reach move 30 with 1:42; in your losses with 1:30. The gap grows to 12 seconds. Medians over your 3+0 games (1,198 wins, 99 losses).
At this level the rating won’t jump from fixing one big weakness, because there isn’t one. What is left is small: your Black openings (−0.3 by move 10) and the few won positions that slip when the clock runs low.
What you do well
Not everything is a leak. These parts of your game already work, measured the same way as the leaks below: against your opponents, in the same games.
- Tactics: 3,430450 above your opponents’ average of 2,980: you see and play tactics better than players at your level.
- Tactical defenceShort combinations cost you less than they cost your opponents: ≈23 points, against ≈84.
- Closing out winsYou close out won games better than your opponents do: ≈16 points lost from winning positions, against ≈39.
- Few pieces hungYou hang pieces less often than your opponents: one-move oversights cost you ≈9 rating points, them ≈25.
- Punishing mistakesYou cash in on their mistakes more often than they cash in on yours: ≈22 points lost there, against ≈29.
Your best moves
6 leaks, ranked by rating points lost beyond your opponents
You beat your opponents in all six of these leaks, by 1 to 61 rating points. Read #1 as where your edge is thinnest, not where you are weak. Every position below is from one of your own games in the last 120 days. Decide on your move first. Then open the answer and step through what you played and what was best with the ← → buttons (or your arrow keys).
1 · Openings that start you in a hole
White: +0.4 by move 10 · Black: −0.3 · ≈19 rating points, 1 fewer than your opponentsYou should keep in mind no names, nor numbers, nor isolated incidents, not even results, but only methods.
By move 10 you are +0.4 as White and −0.3 as Black. In 6% of your Black games you are already 1.5 pawns down. Similar-rated opponents lose about as much in the opening as you do: your edge here is 1 rating point, the thinnest of the six. Black is where it shows. The seven lowest move-10 evals among your openings are all Black lines, led by the Caro-Kann Gurgenidze (14 games) and the Dragon Yugoslav Attack (18 games). You still score 93–94% in both, so this is a small edge to win back, not a hole you keep falling into.
- Why it happens
- At 3+0 your median opening move takes 0.8 seconds. That speed is right when the position is one you know. As Black it sometimes isn’t: −0.3 by move 10 on average, and 1.5 pawns down in 6% of games. One exact position cost you six times: you played …Qxc5 where 5…Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 came first.
- The habit
- When a Black game leaves your usual lines before move 10, spend a few seconds on the first new move. You can afford it: you reach move 10 with the full 180 seconds.
- The drill
- After each session, open the Black games that were worse than −0.5 at move 10 and find the move where it turned. Check it with an engine and a database of recent elite games, then add the fix to your file. Start with the Week 3 lines.
- What success looks like
- Average eval at move 10 as Black above −0.3 (now −0.3).
- Lichess Analysis board + Opening ExplorerpracticeCheck your own opening lines against master games. The explorer needs a free Lichess login.
Practice this: Opening rules that win games →
2 · Endgames: the last point
367 endgame mistakes · 57% in rook+minor endings · ≈8 rating points, 1 fewer than your opponentsIn order to improve your game you must study the endgame before anything else; for, whereas the endings can be studied and mastered by themselves, the middlegame and the opening must be studied in relation to the endgame.
52% of your games reach an endgame. From a winning endgame you score 99%; from an equal one, 86%. 57% of your endgame mistakes come in rook+minor endings. Your opponents lose nearly as much in endgames as you do: your edge is 1 rating point, tied for the thinnest. The puzzles below share one thing, the clock. Three of the four came with 24 seconds or less.
- Why it happens
- These are not knowledge gaps. Below are a mate in one, a pawn that takes a queen, and a rook that lets a king off the edge. They come at 0:24, 0:07 and 0:08. Your big-mistake rate goes from 0.6 per 100 moves with more than 90 seconds left to 3.9 with under 10.
- The habit
- In a won ending with under 30 seconds, play checks and captures of big pieces first. The pawn grab can wait.
- The drill
- Set up the four endings below and play them out against the engine with 30 seconds on your clock, until you win each one cleanly twice. Then read the matching rook+minor sections of Fundamental Chess Endings.
- What success looks like
- Keep converting at least 99% of your winning endgames (now 99%).
Practice this: Converting a won game: trade pieces, not pawns →
3 · Not taking what’s offered
302 missed punishments · 23 free pieces · 5 mates · ≈22 rating points, 7 fewer than your opponentsI have a weakness for any piece in excess of my opponent's numbers - from pawn to queen.
Your opponents hand you material, and 81% of the time you take it. This leak costs you 7 rating points fewer than it costs your opponents. Still, you passed on 23 free pieces and 5 mates. In 54% of the misses the winning move was quiet: an attack on a piece with nowhere to go. Those are the hardest to see at blitz speed.
- Why it happens
- Your misses come at speed. The four below were played with 2:05, 1:01, 0:20 and 1:58 left. At that pace you play your own plan, and the opponent’s mistake goes past.
- The habit
- After every opponent move, ask “What did that move leave loose?” One second, before your own plan.
- The drill
- Collect the quiet misses from your own games, the trapped-piece wins first: 54% of your misses were quiet. Solve each from the diagram in 10 seconds, then spar the engine from it at the clock you had.
- What success looks like
- Punish at least 88% of your opponents’ blunders (now 81%).
Practice this: Is it really safe? Counting attackers and defenders →
4 · One-move oversights
≈87 mistakes · 8% of all · ≈9 rating points, 16 fewer than your opponentsPlaying Real Chess (when you DO consistently analyze to see if each candidate move is safe) will not make you a good player, but playing Hope Chess will prevent you from becoming one.
One-move oversights are rare for you: about 87 mistakes, 8% of all. 54 times a piece went to a square where it could be taken, 31 times an attacked piece stayed where it was. They cost your opponents 16 rating points more than they cost you. When it does happen, it’s the clock. Your blunder rate goes from 0.6 per 100 moves with time to 3.9 under 10 seconds.
- Why it happens
- You don’t miss these for lack of skill. You miss them when the clock is low: 0.6 big mistakes per 100 moves with more than 90 seconds, 3.9 with under 10. The check is there; short of time, it gets skipped.
- The habit
- Under 20 seconds, keep one question: can the piece I’m moving be taken?
- The drill
- 13% of your losses in the last 90 days were on time. After each one, find the move where you spent the seconds you needed later.
- What success looks like
- Big mistakes at or below 0.4 per 40 moves (now 0.46), measured on your next 50 games.
Practice this: The blunder check →
5 · Giving back won games
Reached +5 in 1,586 games · lost 10 · drew 18 · ≈16 rating points, 23 fewer than your opponentsFirst restrain, next blockade, lastly destroy.
You reached +5 in 1,586 games and lost 10 of them. It costs your opponents 23 rating points more than it costs you. 42% of your big mistakes come from winning positions, and the median clock when you drop a win is 1:11. The puzzles below show the pattern: a pawn grab or a slow move when a check or a forcing move finished the game.
- Why it happens
- When you are winning, the shortest path is usually a check. In two of the four positions below you took a pawn when a check was there (27…Ne2+, 28…Qh7+ with mate). The other two were slow moves while the opponent had one idea left.
- The habit
- When you are +5, checks first, then captures, then pawn grabs. Ask what their one idea is before you play for more.
- The drill
- Replay your 10 games lost from +5 and your 18 draws from +5. Mark the first move where a check or a forcing move was better than what you played.
- What success looks like
- Stay at or above 99% after reaching +5 (now 99%).
Practice this: Converting a won game: trade pieces, not pawns →
6 · Two-move tactics against you
≈370 mistakes punished by a short combination · ≈23 rating points, 61 fewer than your opponentsAfter certain particular dispositions of pieces have proved his undoing, the beginner will develop the perception of threats.
This is your biggest edge: 61 rating points better than your opponents. When short combinations do land, they are capture sequences on under-defended pieces (88), attacks on pieces with no retreat (99), checks (76) and forks (32). All four below came with 1:37 or less on your clock.
- Why it happens
- When they do land, the setup is the same: a piece on a square their next move hits. The a4-queen after …Rc5, the king on g7, where one bishop check also hit c7, the queen on d4 in front of a knight. You looked at your move, not at their most forcing reply.
- The habit
- With under 90 seconds, before you release the move, ask what is their most forcing reply?
- The drill
- Once a week, go through your losses and mark the first move where their forcing reply was already on the board. Spar the engine from that position at the clock you had, until you hold it.
- What success looks like
- At the next audit, no more than 24% of your big mistakes come from a short combination (now 36%).
Practice this: Forks: one piece, two targets →
The plan
Four rules, starting today
- Black prep on three lines. As Black you are −0.3 by move 10. The Gurgenidze, the Yugoslav Attack and the Pterodactyl Eastern are where it starts. Week 3 is for them.
- Won endings, low clock: forcing moves first. Winning endgames converted: 99%. Keep it there.
- Their move: which piece just lost its squares? You cash in 81% of their blunders. 54% of the misses were quiet wins against a piece with nowhere to go.
- Spend the seconds before move 30. In losses you reach move 30 with 1:30, in wins with 1:42. Your big-mistake rate goes from 0.6 per 100 moves above 90 seconds to 3.9 under 10.
Before every move
- Out of prep as Black: a few seconds on the first new move.
- Their move: which piece just lost its squares?
- My move: what is their most forcing reply?
- Winning, low clock: checks first, pawns last.
Week by week
Your own positions, calculated
Your game, move 30. You were +4.3. What was the threat?
- Daily 15 min: one or two exercises from Aagaard’s Grandmaster Preparation: Calculation. Write the full line down before you touch a piece, then check it with the engine.
- Daily 10 min: spar the engine from the three positions above with 60 seconds on your clock. Play each one until you win it twice.
- Games: 3+0, rated. After each loss, find the first move where the eval dropped and note which it was: their threat, or your clock. In the game after a loss you score 83%, against 89% otherwise, so do this review before the next game.
Black prep: Gurgenidze, Yugoslav, Pterodactyl
Your game, move 11. Move 11 as Black. White’s d7-bishop and c3-knight are both attacked. Which one do you take?
- With an engine and a database of recent elite games, go through your Black games in the Caro-Kann Gurgenidze (−0.7 by move 10, 14 games), the Dragon Yugoslav Attack (−0.5, 18 games) and the Pterodactyl Eastern (−0.3, 33 games, 85% score).
- Fix one move-10 position a day. Start with the one you repeated six times: …Qxc5, where 5…Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 comes first.
- Spar the engine from each fixed position at 3+0, as Black, until the new move comes at your normal opening speed.
- Play 20 rated games as Black this week (your Black score: 89%). Log every game worse than −0.5 at move 10.
Quiet wins and forcing replies
Your game, move 26. The g6-knight is attacked by your rook. Why can’t Black take back with the f-pawn?
- Daily 15 min: one composed endgame study. Solve it fully from the diagram, without moving pieces, before you check. Studies train the quiet winning move, and 54% of your misses were quiet.
- Daily 10 min: Aagaard’s Grandmaster Preparation: Positional Play, the prophylaxis chapters. Ask what the opponent wants before you calculate your own line.
- Spar the engine from the two positions above and the eight in leaks 3 and 6, starting from the clock you had in the game.
- In your games: after their move, look for the piece that has run out of squares. Before yours, find their most forcing reply.
Closing out +5 games
Your game, move 48. You are +6.8. White has a passed d-pawn. Which is faster, your attack or that pawn?
- Replay your 10 losses and 18 draws from +5 with the engine. Mark the first move where a check or a forcing move was better than what you played.
- From each marked position, play the engine with 1:11 on your clock, your median when a win slips. Finish each one twice.
- When you are +5: checks, then captures, then pawn grabs. Ask what their one idea is before you play for more.
Rook+minor endings at blitz speed
Your game, move 97. Rook and knight against rook, 7 seconds left. Black’s king is stuck on the edge. How do you keep it there?
- Rook+minor endings are 57% of your endgame mistakes (211 of 367). Work through the rook+minor chapters of Müller & Lamprecht’s Fundamental Chess Endings and Dvoretsky’s Endgame Manual. Check each key position with the engine.
- Spar the engine from the two positions above and from your other rook+minor mistakes with 30 seconds on your clock, until you win each cleanly twice.
- From an equal endgame you score 86%. Shereshevsky’s Endgame Strategy is the reference for pressing small edges in long endings.
- Under 10 seconds: checks and captures of big pieces first. The pawn grab can wait.
Audit again
- Play 60 rated 3+0 games, half of them as Black.
- Re-run this analysis on them. You pass if big mistakes are ≤ 0.4 per 40 moves (now 0.46) and you score 99% from +5.
- If you don’t pass, repeat the week whose target you missed.
Games: the latest 2,000 blitz games from the chess.com public API (Mar 11 – Sep 24 2026). Engine: Stockfish 19, 40,000 nodes per position; puzzle lines at 3,000,000. Win% model and accuracy formula: lichess. A big mistake loses ≥ 20 win-% in one move. Rating-point costs: 695 Elo per point of expected score, counting only mistakes the opponent cashed in. Trends: Welch z-test against Mar–Jun.