--- title: "Alexandra Botez blitz analysis: Stockfish on 2,000 games" description: "Your rating is climbing. The next points are in your opponent’s reply. A free Chess Goat report on Alexandra Botez's public chess.com games: improving or lucky, leaks ranked by rating points, and their best moves." canonical: "https://trychessgoat.com/r/alexandrabotez-57d99692/" last_updated: 2026-10-09 --- chess.com / AlexandraBotez · 8,926 games · Stockfish 19 on the latest 2,000 (Nov 18 2022 – Sep 19 2026) # Your rating is climbing. The next points are in your opponent’s reply. 72% of your blitz games are 3+0. Over the last 90 days your rating went from 2364 to 2504, and your accuracy held at 86%, level with your opponents. The engine finds one gap bigger than the rest: short combinations your opponent sees and you don’t. 86.1%your accuracy, last 90d. Opponents: 86.5%. You outplay them in 47% of games. 32%of your big mistakes are made from winning positions: 1,096 of 3,373 0:36median clock when you blunder a winning position 186games lost after being +5 or better, 18% of all your losses ## The short answer **Analysed:** AlexandraBotez’s chess.com blitz games: 8,926 games · Stockfish 19 on the latest 2,000 (Nov 18 2022 – Sep 19 2026). Report date: September 24, 2026. **Verdict:** Rating up, moves steady. Last 90d vs the prior 9 months: accuracy −0.36 (p = 0.70), big mistakes per game +0.08 (p = 0.76), score +0.01 (p = 0.92). None of that is a real change. One number did move: you saved 23% of lost positions, up from 16%. The last 30 days are only 8 games, all unrated, too few to read. **Biggest leaks:** 1. [Two-move tactics against you](https://trychessgoat.com/#leak-tactics): ≈1,352 mistakes punished by a short combination · ≈104 rating points, 26 more than your opponents 2. [Not taking what’s offered](https://trychessgoat.com/#leak-missed): 1,118 missed punishments · 144 free pieces · 20 mates · ≈83 rating points, 15 more than your opponents 3. [Openings that start you in a hole](https://trychessgoat.com/#leak-opening): White: +0.2 by move 10 · Black: −0.7 · ≈32 rating points, 13 more than your opponents [Free Goat Card for AlexandraBotez](https://trychessgoat.com/u/alexandrabotez) · [How to review your own games for free](https://trychessgoat.com/improve/free-game-review/) · [Time pressure in chess, measured](https://trychessgoat.com/improve/time-pressure-data/) At a glance · Last 90d vs. Prior 9 mo ## Your game at a glance - Openings2,330▼ 10 - Tactics2,340▼ 50 - Strategy2,350▼ 30 - Endgames2,290▼ 70 - !!Brilliant moves112in 2,000 games Each number is the rating of a player who plays that part of the game the way you do: your opponents’ average rating (2,340), adjusted by how much win-% you lose per move there compared with them, in the same games. Arrows: the change against your opponents compared with Prior 9 mo; grey means it is within the noise. A **brilliant move** is the engine’s top choice that gives up at least two points of material. Last 30d & Last 90d vs. Prior 9 mo ## Improving, or lucky? **Rating up, moves steady.** Last 90d vs the prior 9 months: accuracy −0.36 (p = 0.70), big mistakes per game +0.08 (p = 0.76), score +0.01 (p = 0.92). None of that is a real change. One number did move: you saved **23%** of lost positions, up from 16%. The last 30 days are only 8 games, all unrated, too few to read. Metric Last 30d Last 90d Prior 9 mo Read Results Games 8 128 73 Rating, start → end 2504 → 2504 2364 → 2504 2177 → 2354 up 140 Score 68.8% 55.5% 54.8% flat (p = 0.92) Skill: what the engine sees Your accuracy 75.5 86.1 86.4 flat (p = 0.70) Opponents’ accuracy 75.2 86.5 86.3 flat Big mistakes per 40 moves 3.58 1.55 1.56 flat (p = 0.76) Opponent blunders you punish 50% 58% 65% worse More accurate than opponent 62% 47% 56% worse Eval at move 10 as White +1.0 +0.2 +0.6 worse Eval at move 10 as Black −0.1 −0.4 −0.7 flat Conversion & luck Score after reaching +5 75.0% 78.0% 78.6% flat Score after being −5 or worse 50.0% 26.5% 18.4% saving more Losses that were +5 at some point 50% 27% 32% better Wins that came from a lost position 20% 23% 16% more luck Wins on the clock while losing on the board 20% 14% 5% more luck Losses on time 0% 16% 23% better ### Rating, rolling 50-game average Rolling 50-game average: 2318 → 2470. A steady climb through 2026. ### Accuracy, rolling 50-game average The two lines move together: you 86.4, opponents 86.7. If you were pulling ahead, the blue line would sit above the orange one. YouOpp ### Your clock: wins vs losses Time left on your clock after your move, in the games you won and the games you lost. 1. Move 20 Wins1:46 Losses1:44 Two seconds apart: 1:46 in wins, 1:44 in losses (medians over your 3+0 games, 686 wins and 801 losses). At move 20 the clock isn’t what separates them. 2. Move 30 Wins0:57 Losses0:50 Seven seconds apart: 0:57 in wins, 0:50 in losses (585 wins, 662 losses). Under a minute either way, and your endgame moves take a median of 0.9 seconds. The rating has moved; the quality of your moves hasn’t yet. To make 2,500 stick, fix the two leaks where you lose more than similar-rated opponents: two-move tactics and missed punishments. Strengths ## What you do well Not everything is a leak. These parts of your game already work, measured the same way as the leaks below: against your opponents, in the same games. - **Strongest area: Strategy (2,350)**Your opponents average 2,340. This is the part of your game closest to, or above, their level. - **Endgames**Your endgames lose fewer points than your opponents’: ≈12, against ≈17. - **Rating up 140**2364 → 2504 in the last 90d, against 2177 → 2354 in the prior 9 mo: up 140. - **Score after being −5 or worse**26.5% in the last 90d, against 18.4% in the prior 9 mo: saving more. - **Losses that were +5 at some point**27% in the last 90d, against 32% in the prior 9 mo: better. ### Your best moves Black to move · Move 30 · 0:30 on your clock · you were +1.9You found a strong sacrifice here: it leaves your rook en prise. Can you find it again? Black to move · Move 29 · 0:18 on your clock · you were +2.5You found a strong sacrifice here: it leaves your bishop en prise. Can you find it again? What the engine found · 3,373 big mistakes classified ## 6 leaks, ranked by rating points lost beyond your opponents Every position below is from one of your own games in the last 120 days. Decide on your move first. Then open the answer and step through what you played and what was best with the ← → buttons (or your arrow keys). Red arrows show what went wrong, green arrows what was best. ### 1 · Two-move tactics against you ≈1,352 mistakes punished by a short combination · ≈104 rating points, 26 more than your opponents > After certain particular dispositions of pieces have proved his undoing, the beginner will develop the perception of threats. — Edward Lasker[Project Gutenberg](https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/5614) This is your biggest gap. Opponents beat you with short combinations: capture sequences on under-defended pieces (472), attacks on pieces with no retreat (374), checks (313) and forks (173). It costs you ≈104 rating points, **26 more** than your similar-rated opponents lose the same way in the same games. No other leak comes close. Coach’s notes 1Why it happens This is not loose-piece awareness. The combination starts with their reply: a capture sequence, a check, or an attack on a piece that has run out of squares. You calculate your own line and stop one move short of their best answer. 2The habit Before any move that captures, pushes a pawn near your king or leaves a piece with two squares or fewer, ask: **what is their most forcing reply?** Checks first, then captures, then attacks on your least mobile piece. 3The drill Three sessions a week of Aagaard’s _Grandmaster Preparation: Calculation_, full lines on paper, their best defence written at every branch. On the other days, solve the positions from this report from the diagram without moving pieces, then play them out against Stockfish at 3+0. 4What success looks like At the next audit, no more than **27%** of your big mistakes come from a short combination (now 40%). Black to move · Move 9 · 3:47 on your clock · you had mate in 10Your move, 3:47 on the clock. White’s knight on h4 and your queen on f6 are both on the board. Which one is loose? You played …Be4?? White to move · Move 70 · 0:09 on your clock · you were +6.8Nine seconds left. Black’s queen is right next to your h-pawn. What can you take? You played Kg8?? Black to move · Move 25 · 0:27 on your clock · you were +7.5You are +7.5. White’s h6-bishop and g3-rook are aimed at g7. What can you take first? You played …f6?? Black to move · Move 37 · 0:38 on your clock · you were +4.2You are +4.2. White’s knight on e4 is defended by the e1-rook. Take it, or hit it? You played …Rxe4?? Practice this: [Forks: one piece, two targets →](https://trychessgoat.com/learn/#/lesson/forks) ### 2 · Not taking what’s offered 1,118 missed punishments · 144 free pieces · 20 mates · ≈83 rating points, 15 more than your opponents > I have a weakness for any piece in excess of my opponent's numbers - from pawn to queen. — Tigran Petrosian[Wikiquote](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Tigran_Petrosian) Your opponents hand you material, and 58% of the time you take it. In the prior 9 months it was 65%. You passed on 144 free pieces and 20 mates. In 48% of the misses the winning move was quiet: an attack on a piece with nowhere to go. That costs ≈83 rating points, **15 more** than similar-rated opponents in the same games. Coach’s notes 1Why it happens The win is often quiet: 48% of your misses were an attack on a piece with nowhere to go, not a capture or a check. At 3+0 you continue your own plan and the chance passes. The rate fell from 65% to 58% in the last 90 days. 2The habit After every opponent move, one question before your plan: **“What did that change?”** Which of their pieces lost a defender or a square? 3The drill Solve the missed positions in this report and in your own games, then write the opponent’s best defence and your answer. Add Lichess **Quiet move** and **Trapped piece** puzzles at Harder difficulty, and Yusupov’s _Chess Evolution_ volumes for calculation with quiet moves. 4What success looks like Punish at least **65%** of your opponents’ blunders (now 58%), your level from the prior 9 months. White to move · Move 50 · 0:05 on your clock · you were +6.5Five seconds left. Black’s f2-pawn is one step from queening. Find a check that lets you deal with it. You played Kh1?? White to move · Move 36 · 1:10 on your clock · you were +2.7Black’s knight hits your queen. Where does it go so your back rank stays covered? You played Qf4?? Black to move · Move 26 · 1:20 on your clock · you were +4.6White’s b5-pawn can be taken two ways. Which one? You played …Rxb5?? White to move · Move 26 · 1:07 on your clock · you were +5.4Black’s rook sits on e6. Which pawn move attacks it? You played b3?? Study with - [Lichess Puzzles: Quiet Move](https://lichess.org/training/quietMove)practicePuzzles where the win is neither a check nor a capture. Set difficulty to Harder so they sit near your level. Practice this: [Is it really safe? Counting attackers and defenders →](https://trychessgoat.com/learn/#/lesson/count-defenders) ### 3 · Openings that start you in a hole White: +0.2 by move 10 · Black: −0.7 · ≈32 rating points, 13 more than your opponents > You should keep in mind no names, nor numbers, nor isolated incidents, not even results, but only methods. — Emanuel Lasker[Wikiquote](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Emanuel_Lasker) By move 10 you are +0.2 as White and −0.7 as Black. In 16% of your Black games you are already 1.5 pawns down. The worst are French-type structures: 31% in the Sicilian French Variation (−1.9 by move 10) and 23% in the MacCutcheon. The gap to similar-rated opponents is 13 rating points: smaller than the tactics leaks, but it repeats every game. Coach’s notes 1Why it happens The deficit is not about principles. It sits in a few French structures: the Sicilian French Variation (−1.9 by move 10), the Classical Steinitz/Boleslavsky and the MacCutcheon Advance, all scoring 31% or less. You reach the same positions and play the same second-best move. 2The habit When you reach a line you have lost in before, stop on the move where it went wrong last time and think. You have the clock for it: 2:38 left at move 10. 3The drill Run your Black games in those lines through Stockfish and find the first move that drops the eval. Check that position in the master database, pick one line and write its move-10 plan in a sentence. Start with 3.Bd3 in the French, where you played 3…Nf6 six times and the engine prefers 3…dxe4. Then play 10 games from each repaired position against an engine or a sparring partner. 4What success looks like Average eval at move 10 as Black at or above **−0.3** (now −0.7). Black to move · Move 11 · 3:29 on your clock · you were +3.1Move 11 as Black, you are +3.1. White’s knight sits on e4. Is there any reason not to take it? You played …g6?? Black to move · Move 8 · 2:35 on your clock · level positionMove 8 as Black. White’s d5-knight is eyeing c7. Which move takes a pawn and guards c7 at once? You played …f6?? White to move · Move 10 · 3:55 on your clock · you were +4.8Move 10 as White. Black’s f-pawn is gone and the king is still on e8. Is there a check? You played Nf3? Study with - [Lichess Analysis board + Opening Explorer](https://lichess.org/analysis)practiceEngine and master database on one board. Check your move-10 positions against strong games. Practice this: [Opening rules that win games →](https://trychessgoat.com/learn/#/lesson/opening-rules) ### 4 · One-move oversights ≈502 mistakes · 15% of all · ≈57 rating points, 8 more than your opponents > It never even passed through my mind that this was threatened. — José Raúl Capablanca[Project Gutenberg](https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/33870) 267 times a piece went to a square where it could be taken; 208 times an attacked piece stayed where it was. Your big-mistake rate is 2.3 per 100 moves with more than 90 seconds left, and more than doubles below that (4.9 at 45–90s, 5.3 at 20–45s). The check is there when you have time. It drops out when you don’t. Against similar-rated opponents the gap is 8 rating points. Coach’s notes 1Why it happens You know these. With more than 90 seconds you make 2.3 big mistakes per 100 moves; at 45–90 seconds it is 4.9. The check you run with time drops out under a minute and a half. 2The habit Below 90 seconds, keep one check: **what does their most active piece see after my move?** The positions above went to a long bishop diagonal and a pawn attacking two pieces. 3The drill Set up equal middlegames from your own games and play them against Stockfish with 60 seconds each. It trains the check at the clock where you drop it. 4What success looks like Big mistakes at or below **1.3** per 40 moves (now 1.55), measured on your next 50 games. White to move · Move 66 · 0:07 on your clock · level positionSeven seconds left. Before you move your rook: what can it take, and what does the e4-bishop see? You played Ra8?? Black to move · Move 15 · 2:13 on your clock · level positionWhite’s pawn on g6 attacks two things. What are they, and what removes the problem? You played …Bxh4?? Practice this: [The blunder check →](https://trychessgoat.com/learn/#/lesson/blunder-check) ### 5 · Giving back won games Reached +5 in 976 games · lost 186 · drew 61 · ≈29 rating points, 6 more than your opponents > First restrain, next blockade, lastly destroy. — Aron Nimzowitsch[ChessBase](https://en.chessbase.com/post/edward-winter-s-che-explorations-11-) You reached +5 in 976 games and lost 186 of them. 32% of your big mistakes come from winning positions, at a median of 0:36 on the clock. On its own it looks big, but your opponents lose almost as much: you lose only **6 rating points** more. It ranks fifth for that reason. Coach’s notes 1Why it happens Your opponents give back almost as much, so the gap is small. Of the games you lost from +5, 66 ended by resignation, 63 on time and 57 by checkmate. The median clock when you blunder a winning position is 0:36: the opponent has nothing to lose, and you have little time to check. 2The habit At +5 with under a minute, switch modes: **find their one counterplay idea and stop it**, then trade. Skip the fastest win if it needs calculation you have no time for. 3The drill Pick 20 of your games lost or drawn from +5. Play each from the +5 position against Stockfish at 1+0 until you win it twice in a row. 4What success looks like Score at least **86%** after reaching +5 (now 78%). White to move · Move 22 · 1:49 on your clock · you were +6.8You are +6.8. Black’s queen just went to b5. What attacks it? You played Kh2?? White to move · Move 46 · 0:12 on your clock · you were +7.2You are +7.2 with 12 seconds left. Is there a check that wins material? You played Kg2?? Study with - [Aron Nimzowitsch: My System (Wikipedia)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_System)bookRestrain, blockade, destroy: the prophylactic method for won positions. Practice this: [Converting a won game: trade pieces, not pawns →](https://trychessgoat.com/learn/#/lesson/converting) ### 6 · Endgames: the last point 999 endgame mistakes · 53% in rook+minor endings · ≈12 rating points, 5 fewer than your opponents > The rooks belong behind passed pawns, behind their own in order to support their advance, behind the enemy's in order to impede their advance. — Siegbert Tarrasch[Wikiquote](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Siegbert_Tarrasch) This one is a strength: you lose **5 fewer** rating points here than similar-rated opponents. 59% of your games reach an endgame, and from a winning one you score 90%. The rest of that 10% is wins you had already earned. 53% of your endgame mistakes come in rook+minor endings, and 11 winning endgames were lost on time. The technique is there; the clock isn’t. Coach’s notes 1Why it happens Your technique is ahead of your opponents’. What costs points is speed: a median of 0.9 seconds per endgame move, and 11 winning endgames lost on time. Most mistakes come in rook+minor endings, where one pawn race decides. 2The habit Before any capture or king move in an ending, **count the pawn race**. The positions above were a missed trade into a won pawn ending, a pawn grabbed too early and a king going the wrong way. 3The drill Once a week, play rook+minor endings from your own games against Stockfish at 1+0, from both sides. For theory, the rook-ending chapters of Dvoretsky’s _Endgame Manual_. 4What success looks like Convert at least **95%** of your winning endgames (now 90%). White to move · Move 51 · 0:17 on your clock · you were +4.2Endgame, you are +4.2. The knight is checking you. What pawn ending do you get if you take it? You played Ke3?? Black to move · Move 71 · 0:08 on your clock · you were +6.9Endgame, you are +6.9. Grab the h5-pawn, or stay near White’s d-pawn? You played …Kxh5?? White to move · Move 64 · 0:13 on your clock · you were +4.6Endgame, you are +4.6. Black’s b4-pawn has no defender. Which way does your king go? You played Ke4?? Study with - [Jeremy Silman: Silman’s Complete Endgame Course](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/83337.Silman_s_Complete_Endgame_Course)bookSplit by rating. Read only the master-level section. Practice this: [Converting a won game: trade pieces, not pawns →](https://trychessgoat.com/learn/#/lesson/converting) Lesson plan · 8 weeks · ~45 minutes a day ## The plan ### Four rules, starting today 1. **Their forcing reply, every move.** Before you release a move, name their checks, captures and attacks on your least mobile piece. Capture sequences (472), trapped pieces (374) and checks (313) did most of the damage. 2. **Their move first, your plan second.** You cash in 58% of their blunders, down from 65%. Half the misses were quiet: look for their piece with no squares before you continue your plan. 3. **Repair the Black move-10 positions.** As Black you are −0.7 by move 10, and 16% of your Black games start 1.5 pawns down. The French lines in Week 3 are where it happens. 4. **Spend the clock where it pays.** Your big-mistake rate more than doubles below 90 seconds (2.3 to 4.9 per 100 moves). You play the opening at 1.4s a move and still have 2:38 at move 10. Spend the surplus on the moves that capture, trade or open your king. Your in-game checklist ### Before every move 1. Their most forcing reply: checks, captures, the piece with no squares. 2. Their last move: what lost a defender or a square? 3. Capture or pawn move near my king: what opens? 4. Winning: stop their one idea, then trade. Chess Goat · trychessgoat.com ### Week by week Weeks 1–2 · Leaks 1 + 2 ### Their forcing reply Start · White to move Your game, move 27. You were +6.9. What was the threat? - Daily 30 min: Aagaard’s _Grandmaster Preparation: Calculation_. One exercise at a time, full lines written before you check. At every branch, write their best defence first. That is the move you skip. - Daily 10 min: solve the positions above from the diagram, without moving pieces. Name their forcing reply out loud, then play each one out against Stockfish at 3+0 from your side. - Games: 3+0 rated, as usual. After each loss, find the first eval drop and label the reply you missed: capture sequence, check, trapped piece or fork. Target: big mistakes ≤ 1.3 per 40 moves (now 1.55) Week 3 · Leak 3 ### Repair the Black move-10 positions Start · Black to move Move 8 as Black. White’s d5-knight is eyeing c7. Which move takes a pawn and guards c7 at once? - Export your Black games in the Sicilian French Variation, the Classical Steinitz/Boleslavsky and the MacCutcheon Advance. Run them through Stockfish and mark the first move that drops the eval. - Check each of those positions in the Lichess master database. Pick one line per structure and write the move-10 plan in one sentence. - Start with 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Bd3. You played 3…Nf6 there six times; the engine prefers 3…dxe4. - Play 10 games from each repaired position against Stockfish or a sparring partner at 3+0. Then 20 rated games as Black. Target: eval at move 10 as Black ≥ −0.3 (now −0.7) Weeks 4–5 · Leaks 2 + 1 ### Cash in the quiet wins Start · Black to move White’s b5-pawn can be taken two ways. Which one? - Daily 20 min: Lichess puzzle themes **Quiet move** and **Trapped piece**, difficulty set to Harder or Hardest. 48% of your misses were quiet wins. - Two sessions a week: Yusupov’s _Chess Evolution_ volumes, the last three books of his course. Solve every exercise before you look. - After each game, open every opponent blunder the engine flags. Did you see the winning move? If you saw it and rejected it, find the reason. Target: punish ≥ 65% of opponent blunders (now 58%) Week 6 · Leak 5 ### Winning positions under a minute Start · White to move You are +6.8. Black’s queen just went to b5. What attacks it? - Pick 20 of your games lost or drawn from +5. Play each from the +5 position against Stockfish at 1+0 until you win it twice in a row. - At +5 with under a minute: name their one counterplay idea before you move, and stop it. Trade pieces when it costs nothing. - Keep 20 seconds for the finish. 63 of the games you lost from +5 ended on time. Target: score from +5 ≥ 86% (now 78%) Week 7 · Leak 6 ### Rook + minor endings at speed Start · White to move Endgame, you are +4.2. The knight is checking you. What pawn ending do you get if you take it? - Twice this week: rook+minor endings from your own games, played out against Stockfish at 1+0 from both sides. 53% of your endgame mistakes come from them. - Before any capture or king move in an ending, count the pawn race. Your median endgame move takes 0.9 seconds; this one deserves three. - For theory, Dvoretsky’s _Endgame Manual_, the rook-ending chapters. Your technique is already ahead of your opponents’, so keep it short. Target: winning endgames converted ≥ 95% (now 90%) Week 8 · Re-measure ### Audit again - Play 60 rated 3+0 games, half of them as Black. Stop a session at 15 games: from game 16 on you score 43%, against 48% in games 1–3. - Re-run this analysis on them. You pass if big mistakes are ≤ 1.3 per 40 moves (now 1.55) and you score 86% from +5. - If you don’t pass, repeat weeks 1–2. Two-move tactics are the leak where you trail similar-rated opponents most. Method Games: the latest 2,000 blitz games from the chess.com public API (Nov 18 2022 – Sep 19 2026). Engine: Stockfish 19, 50,000 nodes per position; puzzle lines at 3,000,000. Win% model and accuracy formula: lichess. A **big mistake** loses ≥ 20 win-% in one move. Rating-point costs: 695 Elo per point of expected score, counting only mistakes the opponent cashed in. Trends: Welch z-test against Prior 9 mo. Want this for your own games? Send your chess.com username; the report arrives as a link like this one. [Get your Goat Report · $10$5](https://trychessgoat.com/) Analysis by [Stockfish](https://stockfishchess.org/), the free open-source chess engine. Chess Goat is not affiliated with chess.com, or with any player, coach, author or channel quoted or linked in this report.